As competitive Senate map emerges, both Democrats and Republicans see a path to win

+ Politics As competitive Senate map emerges, both Democrats and Republicans see a path to win July 17, 20264:43 PM ET Heard on All Things Considered By Maham Javaid As competitive Senate map emerges, both Democrats and Republicans see a path to win Listen &middot; 4:20 4:20 Transcript Toggle more options Download Embed Embed "> <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5875199/nx-s1-9853450" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> Transcript More than halfway through the primary elections, the map of competitive Senate races is becoming clearer, though there are still outstanding races to watch. Sponsor Message Transcript AILSA CHANG, HOST: All right, we are more than halfway through the primaries, and many of the Senate races are now set. The math has not changed. If Democrats want to take control of the chamber, they need to flip four seats. Republicans insist that they will hold the majority, but they admit it could be a narrow one. And with President Trump's low approval ratings, driven largely by the war with Iran and economic frustrations across the country, things could still shift. NPR political reporter Maham Javaid has been looking at this and joins us now, Hi, Maham.

+ MAHAM JAVAID, BYLINE: Hi. CHANG: OK, so let's talk about the Democrats' odds of taking the Senate. What do you make of them? JAVAID: So the Democrats can see a number of paths to taking control of the Senate. The most likely way to win the majority right now seems to be through Maine, Ohio, Alaska and North Carolina. CHANG: OK. JAVAID: The race that Democrats feel most confident about is North Carolina, and the polls back that up. The contest is between former Democratic governor Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. He's the former RNC chairman and a close Trump ally. Republicans are encouraged by Whatley's fundraising skills. I mean, the race is on track to break spending records. Meanwhile, the Democrats believe that Cooper's name recognition is going to help them win. There is one thing working against the Democrats, though. The last time they won a Senate race in North Carolina was nearly two decades ago, in 2008. CHANG: Wow, OK. So that could be a tough hill to climb. I'm going to move north now because there has been so much attention on the Maine Senate race since the Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, dropped out. Where do things stand in that race right now? JAVAID: Yeah, so some in the Democratic establishment would say Platner's exit actually improves their chances in Maine. Platner suspended his campaign after facing an allegation of rape that he denies. But even before that allegation, there were a number of scandals he was facing, and many in the party thought that he would not be able to defeat Republican Senator Susan Collins. She is known for winning and getting votes not just from conservatives, but also from the bluest parts of the state. What she has working against her is the fact that she's a Republican running in a state that President Trump lost just back in 2024. The Maine Democratic Party has till July 27 to find a replacement candidate. Nearly a dozen people have thrown their hat in the ring. This race was considered a toss-up when Platner was the candidate, and that hasn't changed. CHANG: Well, what are some of the other toss-ups that we should be watching? JAVAID: Well, there's Alaska, which used to be a leaning-Republican race, but it became a toss-up because the Republican incumbent, Senator Dan Sullivan, now shares the ballot with another Dan Sullivan. The two Dan Sullivans running in the race could confuse voters at the ballot box. The leading Democratic candidate, former representative Mary Peltola, is campaigning on affordability. Peltola, the two Dan Sullivans and other candidates will face each other in an open primary on August 18. Before that, though, we'll be watching Michigan. The primary is set for August 4, and it's captured national attention. There's Representative Haley Stevens versus former Detroit health official Abdul El-Sayed. The former is a centrist while the latter is a progressive, promising Medicare for all and the abolishment of ICE, so really highlighting this trend that we've been seeing in the Democratic Party where progressives are taking on establishment candidates. The winner will face the all-but-certain Republican nominee, Mike Rogers. Republicans are relishing this drawn-out brawl between the two Democrats, while Democrats feel confident that they will hold on to Michigan. CHANG: Michigan - OK, well, that brings us to Ohio. And you mentioned that Democrats could possibly flip a seat there, yeah? JAVAID: Yeah, there's Ohio. Here, Democrats did get the candidate they wanted, former Senator Sherrod Brown. He's built a hefty war chest to take on the incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to that seat. Democrats feel good about Brown sticking to kitchen-table economic issues while Republicans point out that voters rejected Brown in 2024, and they could do the same this year. CHANG: That is NPR political reporter Maham Javaid. Thank you so much, Maham. JAVAID: Thank you. Copyright &copy; 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record. 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