What the Kentucky and Georgia primaries could tells us about the midterm elections

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Politics What the Kentucky and Georgia primaries could tells us about the midterm elections May 19, 20263:59 AM ET Heard on Morning Edition Leila Fadel What the Kentucky and Georgia primaries could tells us about the midterm elections Listen &middot; 4:56 4:56 Transcript Toggle more options Download Embed Embed "> <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/nx-s1-5825853/nx-s1-9775810" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> Transcript Conservative political consultant and pollster Sarah Longwell talks about the Kentucky and Georgia primaries and what the results might portend for the midterm elections. Sponsor Message LEILA FADEL, HOST: Political consultant Sarah Longwell will also be watching the results of today's primaries. She's the founder and publisher of the conservative-leaning media outlet The Bulwark. Sarah, good morning and welcome back to the program. SARAH LONGWELL: Good morning. FADEL: So President Trump's popularity is slipping, including among people who voted for him. But in the primaries we've seen so far this year, the people he's chosen to unseat incumbent Republicans have done well. So based on those outcomes, he's popular and influential within his party still. So how do you understand these low polling numbers and these results we're seeing? LONGWELL: Well, you have to understand - and Domenico talked about this a little bit - that the primary electorate that we are looking at in places like Georgia, especially these red states, they are extremely Trumpy. This doesn't include independents, obviously doesn't include Democrats, doesn't include a lot of more casual voters. And so in the Republican primaries in very red states, you do get people trying very hard to out-Trump each other, out-MAGA each other, 'cause that endorsement still carries a lot of weight with these voters despite the fact that - and I talk to these voters all the time in focus groups. I was just talking to people in Georgia - despite the fact that Republican voters right now aren't feeling particularly enthusiastic in general. They're actually feeling pretty dejected by the state of things. FADEL: What else did voters in Georgia say to you? I mean, Domenico mentioned how important this race will be in the midterms and when it comes to control in the Senate. LONGWELL: I mean, the biggest thing you heard from Republicans in Georgia was how much they desperately wanted to beat Jon Ossoff but that they didn't really think it was going to happen. They don't feel - they don't like any of the candidates that are in their Republican Senate primary. You've got Derek Dooley, who's endorsed by Governor Kemp, which is becoming a bit of a proxy fight with Representative Buddy Carter, who's endorsed by Trump. And so you've got sort of the Kemp wing of the party lined up against the Trump - more Trumpy wing of the party to try and get the second slot in this race. But the voters were just sort of like - they like Kemp. They like Trump. But they don't like any of these candidates particularly, and they don't feel like any of the candidates in the race are likely to beat Jon Ossoff when it comes to the general election. FADEL: Now, Georgia is a state where Trump won by two points but also a state that's represented by two Democrats in the Senate. What are you looking to understand by watching the primary there? LONGWELL: I mean, Georgia is one of the - is still a very strange state in that it is both a swing state with a lot of swing voters, a lot of voters that split their ticket. But honestly, the biggest thing coming out of Georgia for this race really in the general election is going to be does Jon Ossoff win in a state that has - especially by maybe a large margin because there's not a very good Republican candidate. Does he come out of this looking like presidential material in 2028, the kind of candidate who can win in these redder places? And I think if he ends up against a weak Republican candidate in a weak enthusiasm time for Republicans, he could come out of that race putting up big margins, which would sort of catapult him to the top of the list that people are looking for in 2028. But as it - when it comes to Republicans, what it really is, is how much enthusiasm can Trump still get out of his base? He may be able to pull people over the line with his endorsement, but do they like his candidates? Do they feel enthusiastic about his candidates? Or are Republicans feeling the same way most voters are about Trump, which is that he's in the twilight of his presidency and everyone's feeling a little dejected about how things are going in the country? FADEL: What do you think that lack of enthusiasm that you're hearing from Republican voters says about that electorate and the performance of this president in the elections ahead? LONGWELL: There's just no doubt that Republicans are disappointed with how Trump's second term has gone, even when they put on a brave face to say, you know, he's doing his best or we've just got to get through the war with Iran and - you know, but it's important that we do that. They make excuses for him. But also, every single Republican voter that we listen to thinks things are not going well in the country. They think gas prices are too high. They think grocery prices are too high. They are disappointed that Trump, who said he was going to come into office and immediately lower prices, hasn't been able to do so and, in fact, just seems to be focusing on things that are much less important to them, like his ballroom, like his arch and other pet projects of the president. And they're also not wild about the fact that he's constantly on these sort of vindication tours or going after Republicans, and it's just contributing to a lack of enthusiasm in the party. FADEL: Sarah Longwell is a political consultant and pollster who hosts "The Focus Group" podcast. Thank you for your time. LONGWELL: Thank you. Copyright &copy; 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. 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