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SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Lake Ontario began the week secure in its identity. Then it got caught up in the U.S.-Canada trade war of 2026. And Thursday, with the stroke of a pen, put to an executive order, President Trump decreed to change its name to Lake America. NPR senior contributor Ron Elving joins us. Ron, thanks so much for being with us.
RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: Now, at first, this might seem trivial given the Iran war, the economy, but is poking Canada like this the best way to get the U.S.'s second biggest trading partner back to the table?
ELVING: Hardly, yet it seems trivial on one level, but it's also part of Trump's tactics. He often belittles adversaries and allies alike, intending to gain leverage, if not outright dominance, in negotiations. So we're talking about 50% tariffs being levied by both countries, a disastrous result after long months of trade negotiations led to an apparent agreement and then a total blow-up a week ago with both sides accusing the other of sabotaging the talks.
But Canada is not just another trading partner. It's been a constant ally through a century of war, and beyond that, a country that shares a language and culture. But this particular war of choice, this tariff war, comes on the heels of Trump's other war of choice, the military attacks on Iran. Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open, but only about a tenth as many ships can get through as did in March. Trump also says there's plenty of oil coming from elsewhere in the world, and he's just announced a deal to control oil from Venezuela, and it may be a great deal of oil, but it may take years to hit the market. Meanwhile, we're paying $4 a gallon for gas and lots higher prices for many other things.
SIMON: Yesterday, the new chair of the Federal Reserve spoke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the Fed's yearly conference. He said inflation's still a problem. What else are people reading in his remarks?
ELVING: Chairman Kevin Warsh knew well that any mention of elevated inflation would likely be the news from the meeting. He did say good things about the present state of the economy that Trump and Republican candidates this fall can repeat. But his remarks about inflation did not point to falling interest rates anytime soon. Trump wants rates to fall, but Warsh was indicating that desire would not be the last word. In fact, these remarks had some people predicting an interest rate increase in the months ahead - possibly after the midterm elections.
In his first months on the job, Warsh may not feel he has the same independence that his predecessor Jerome Powell had, but he's certainly aware of the example Powell set for him in resisting pressure from Trump.
SIMON: And about the midterms, conventional wisdom has long told us, don't read too much into the polls taken before Labor Day, but the Cook Political Report last week moved two Senate races from lean Republican to toss-up. That's in Iowa and Texas. This week, it shifted three House races towards Democrats. What might account for this?
ELVING: I have great respect for the Cook Report. These assessments are related to the polls, first and foremost. Trump is down to about one-third of the voters. That's bad enough, but he's also begun to see some meaningful erosion among his longtime backers, people who voted for him three times, people disappointed with the economy, to be sure, but also with Trump's second-term priorities.
With all that's going on in the world with Iran and Ukraine and the tariffs, it's remarkable how much time and energy he devotes to things like his ballroom and the Kennedy Center and even the Lincoln Reflecting Pool. After all this time, with so many irons in the fire, he's still consumed with personal grievances and minor matters that he perceives as essential to his brand.
SIMON: Ron Elving. Thanks so much.
ELVING: Thank you, Scott. Copyright © 2026 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. Accuracy and availability of NPR transcripts may vary. Transcript text may be revised to correct errors or match updates to audio. Audio on npr.org may be edited after its original broadcast or publication. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Anyone who makes such an offer or request is not an NPR employee and does not represent NPR. Facebook Flipboard Email Read & Listen Home News Culture Music Podcasts & Shows Connect Newsletters Facebook Instagram Press Public Editor Corrections Transcripts Contact & Help About NPR Overview Diversity NPR Network Accessibility Ethics Finances Get Involved Support Public Radio Sponsor NPR NPR Careers NPR Shop NPR Extra Terms of Use Privacy Your Privacy Choices Text Only Sponsor Message Sponsor Message Become an NPR sponsor (function () { var loadPageJs = function () { (window.webpackJsonp=window.webpackJsonp||[]).push([[22],{310:function(e,n,o){o.p=NPR.serverVars.webpackPublicPath,Promise.all([o.e(1),o.e(2),o.e(3),o.e(4),o.e(80)]).then((e=>{o(15),o(769),o(155),o(176),o(93),o(447),o(254),o(128),o(130),o(754),o(175),o(755),o(255),o(78),o(773)}).bind(null,o)).catch(o.oe)},782:function(e,n,o){e.exports=o(310)}},[[782,0]]]); }; if (document.readyState === 'complete') { loadPageJs(); } else { window.addEventListener('load', function load() { window.removeEventListener('load', load, false); loadPageJs(); }); } })();